CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SAT 15/01 - 06Z SUN 16/01 2005
ISSUED: 14/01 17:15Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the S Aegean Sea and the E Mediterranean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

High-amplitude upper flow pattern existing over Europe ... with large-scale upper ridge covering the central porions of Europe ... and two deepening upper long-wave troughs to its E and W respectively. Upper ridge is accompanied by building SFC high over central Europe ... and cyclogenesis is expected over the Aegean regions as vort max travels around SE European upper low late in the period. To its W ... polar air is advected southwards with main frontal boundary stretching from central Turkey across the E Aegean Sea by early Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

...S Aegean Sea ... E Mediterranean Sea...
It looks that TSTM threat will exist especially late in the period over the Aegean regions and the SE Mediterranean Sea within weakly unstable air mass ... low-level kinematic fields are expected to improve some after Sunday 00Z in response to the cyclogenesis ... and an isolated severe TSTM event or two may occur. However ... allover severe TSTM threat should be quite low.

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